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While Credit Paused Earnings Has Taken the Wheel
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A Fundamental Slowdown Is Now Priced In, It Isn’t Showing Up
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The Earnings Hangover Has Ended
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The Rally We Should’ve Had in 2022
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Back In Business, And Ain’t It Grand
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2025 Is Set Up For Growth, With A Bumpy Start
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Banks Are Finally Getting Ready To Open The Vault
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Corporates Are Finally Investing In The Future
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Will The Fed Be In Time To Maintain Corporate Growth
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Claudia Sahm’s Warning Shot Just Fired
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The Market Is Betting The Calvary Is About To Arrive
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AI Alone Can’t Solve The Two-Thirds Equation
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It’s the Earnings Growth, Stupid
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A Wall of Worry Is Better Than a Cliff of Defaults
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Follow Management’s Money, It Tells A Story
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Banks Keep Making It Harder For Borrowers
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The Market is Letting a Good Story Get in the Way of Facts
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Valuations Don’t Dictate A Market Dropping, Just How Much
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More And More Signals Point Towards A Slowdown
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Even A Dead Cat Will Bounce If You Drop It From High Enough
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Recessions Are Caused By A Need To Refinance Debts
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Risk Blind Investors Are Increasing The Risk Of A Correction
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Credit Metrics Continue To Show Growing Signs Of Risk
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We Are Likely Past The Point of Avoiding A Recession
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Growing Borrower Delinquency Rates Highlight Credit Stress
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Borrower Balance Sheets Mean This Recession Won’t Be Deep
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SVB Was A Casualty Of Fed Tightening But Not A Harbinger
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Market correlation data says we’re not in a new bull market
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“Don’tFightTheFed”ShouldContinueToBeInvestorsMantra
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The Market Can’t Rise Without Lasting Earnings Growth
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Thet Surest Signf of a a l Potential Recessiont Just Flashed
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An Earnings Recession Is Not The Same Thing As A Recession
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The Market Dropped, That Doesn’t Mean It’ll Continue To
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There Are Actually Three Directions a Market Can Go
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Rising Cost to Borrow Isn’t Preventing Growth – Only Excessively High Cost Will
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6% Nominal GDP Growth in A Recession Makes It Not One
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The Worst Is Likely Behind Us, A Positive Catalyst For H2 2022
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When Management Team’s Speak, We Listen, They’re Bullish
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Geopolitical Risk Is (Still) For Reporters, Not Investors
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Geopolitical Risk Is For Reporters, Not Investors
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Credit Demand Is Means Green Shoots of Growth Are Returning
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Management Teams Are Primed to Deliver Strong Earnings Growth for 2022
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The Market May Get Growth And Inflation Concerns For Christmas
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We Are Waiting for Growth
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You Can’t Have The Growth Stage Of A Bull Market Without Growth
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The Most Important Rule Of A Bull Market Is…Buy The Dips
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This Market Appears Well-Positioned to Climb the Wall of Worry
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Early Management Buying Signals May Give Reason for Growing Growth Optimism
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A Sideways Market Is Not The End Of The World, And A Reasonable Outlook
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Investors Would Be Wise to Sell In May and Go Away This Year
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Credit Spreads Levels Are As Important As Their Rate of Change… They Remain Low
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The Market Continues To Rise, While Growth and Inflation Signals Give Us Pause
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The Market Rally Has Fundamental Backing, But Short-Term Risk-Reward is Skewed
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Excessively Positive Sentiment Points to Early 2021 Returns Being Pulled Forward
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Managements Showed Growth Bullishness in October, And the Vaccine Helps
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Growth and Sentiment Signal We’re at the High End of a Range Bound Market
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We Warned A Pullback Was Coming – Don’t Panic, Just Watch The Growth Signals
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The Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry – With Limited Long-term Worries
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With The Market Re-testing June Highs, Last Month’s Playbook Remains Unchanged
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There are signs the U.S. recovery could be quick, but markets are already expecting it
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The data says expect a retest of the lows, but it says don’t panic during it, buy
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A month further in the crisis, the long-term fundamental picture remains positive
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Weathering a storm requires a strong foundation, which this economy has
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Party like it's early 1999 – the markets are set up to
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After a 15% rally since October, the market may be set up to pause – don’t panic
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Santa’s job may be done soon, but his rally has more room to run into 2020
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Early credit warning signs and accelerating growth – sounds like a late stage Bull
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It’s steady as she goes in a choppy sea, but no storm clouds on the horizon
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Stalled earnings growth and sentiment point to a range bound market
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Weak earnings growth and a recession are two different things, focus on the former
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The Fed makes the trend, and the (upward) trend is your friend
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…or how I learned to stop worrying and buy the Bull market
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Pull-backs are natural in a healthy bull market, and this is a healthy bull market
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The data continues to tip the scales towards reasons to expect market upside
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We are in the 7th inning of this market rally, and there is a lot of baseball left to play
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Bull markets die on euphoria, no one looks euphoric for this market
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A RECESSION IS COMING ... in 1.5-2 years if trends do not change before then
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A deep bear market does not occur without credit risk – we do not see any
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With oil prices tumbling, are you not concerned about an economic downturn?
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In the middle of a retest is the hardest, and best, time to trust the (right) data
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Halloween may be around the corner, but don’t be spooked by the market’s moves
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Higher highs and higher lows, fundamentally and technically
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The signal and the noise
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A Goldilocks environment as earnings season enters full swing?
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Bullish sentiment and headline risk creates buying opportunities – use them
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“I’ve got a really good feeling about this” – Young Han Solo on today’s market
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Management teams are voting with their wallets, investors are likely to follow
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The fundamentals, not the headlines, will end up dictating the market direction
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Inflation will be a headwind to multiples, but earnings growth can be a tailwind
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2018 is shaping up similar to 2017 — and that is very good for investors
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As we sing Auld Lang Syne ― let us reflect on why this old bull market still has life
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Can Santa Claus visit twice In 4 Months – investors are betting against it
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When fundamentals, sentiment, and credit point the same way, don't overthink it
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Santa Claus is coming to town – someone should tell equity investors
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The weighing machine continues along, but the voting machine is overheating
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Cross another concern off–moderating inflation facilitates premium valuations
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More and more fundamental factors point to a growth acceleration
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Fundamental storm clouds are receding, so news related sell-offs offer opportunity
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When sentiment reaches neutral levels (like now) in a Stage 2 bull, be a buyer
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Not to be a broken record, but when this next dip comes (and it will) buy it
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All signs still point to longer-term fundamental tailwinds, but near-term volatility
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Overly bullish investors point to the likelihood of a market dip, but be sure to buy it
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Growth is emerging – but markets need to pause for fundamentals to catch up
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Green shoots of growth are starting to emerge post-election
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With many catalysts, and all conflicting, what to do? Wait.
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Corrections remain buying opportunities due of lack of investment alternatives
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Maybe sentiment isn’t too extended - Interest rates and leverage offer upside
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ROA' forecast revisions are a positive, but excessive investor optimism is a risk
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Catalysts for growth remain absent, increasing valuation and sentiment risk
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Investor sentiment appears ahead of management action, spelling volatility
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A sideways market where fundamentals limit upside, but credit limits downside
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Still a sideways market where growth limits upside, but credit limits downside
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A sideways market where fundamentals limit upside, but credit limits downside
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Markets are down over 10% from highs, but credit signals give reason for calm
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Valuation, profitability and growth put a ceiling on upside and may spell downside
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Markets appear fully valued, but could growth be around the corner?
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Credit fundamentals and management sentiment signal risks are exaggerated
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When all investors are positioned for the worst, downside is often limited
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A September rate hike looks more likely, but any correction is a buying opportunity
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Investor sentiment appears to be overly negative in the near term, while management teams are growing more constructive, supporting a continued bounce off of near-term lows.
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Management teams’ unwillingness to spend on growth, combined with fairly valued equity markets, points to a range-bound market in the near term. However, with no credit concerns that would threaten the bull market, any dip is a buying opportunity.
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While management sentiment indicators are growing, they remain low, and combined with falling growth indicators, limit the potential for a pick-up in investment in the near-term.
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While equity markets no longer appear undervalued, valuations are only in the middle of historic levels for the current market context.
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Oil prices do collapse during recessions. they also fall or remain low when the business and market cycles are building a foundation for a strong bull. Now, it supports the bull market.
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We can unequivocally say that that we have not yet seen a market top, and that this bull market seems fully intact. With continued earnings and steady multiples, 2015 looks like it could be another 2014.
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No one can consistently pick a market bottom or market top ahead of time. However, you can be pretty sure when it has already happened. That may be all you need.
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Current favorable credit environment implies limited risk of bear market, though fundamentals will dictate incremental equity upside.
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In similar to current market conditions, P/E multiples have been +20x, giving U.S. equities 10% to 25% more upside.
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Though sentiment is neutral-to-negative, credit signals do not justify bear market, current weakness a buying opportunity in slightly undervalued market.
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Neutral investor sentiment, potential early signs of growth picking up; still in first stage of Bull market and market appears slightly undervalued.
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Shift from overly bullish investor sentiment to neutral investor sentiment; lower correction risk, still in first stage of Bull market, and market appears fairly valued.
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Remaining in the later stage of the Bull Market's first stage, safe credit means low risk of bear market, though fair valuations and investor sentiment suggest sideways stock-pickers market.
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Corporate profitability is at incredible highs, correlation between S&P1500 stocks has fallen steadily, and credit markets are still at historical lows.
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The U.S. is at the earlier stages of a complete bull market cycle; high corporate profits likely to be sustained amidst a low-growth environment.
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Approaching the later stage of the Bull Market's first stage in the Market Phase Cycle: long-term positives for the formation of a bull market remain.
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Talks of a bubble overstated: The current First Stage U.S. Bull Market justified by Corporate Performance in a low-rate environment.
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USA Market Phase Cycle currently in the Middle of a Bull Market's First Stage. Long-term, more upside for the US market, though with high volatility.
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